2018 Pre-Season Predictions Recap

AL EAST

Prediction: Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles, Rays

Actual: Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles

Reaction: Well, I got the two playoff teams from the division right, but this order was terrible. The Rays were impressive, and the Orioles were also impressive but for not very good reasons. (Chris Davis was paid around 21 million dollars this year and put up one of the worst seasons of all time.)

AL CENTRAL

Prediction: Indians, Twins, Royals, Tigers, White Sox

Actual: Indians, Twins, Tigers, White Sox, Royals

Reaction: Not bad. The Indians were the easy favorite. Those final three teams could have ended in any order. They were all terrible, combining for over 300 losses.

AL WEST

Prediction: Astros, Angels, Mariners, Rangers, Athletics

Actual: Astros, Athletics, Mariners, Angels, Rangers

Reaction: I was really disappointed in the Angels this season. They did finish just below .500, but were not very competitive all year. They continue to waste the best player in baseball. No words for what the Athletics did. Extremely impressive.

NL EAST

Prediction: Nationals, Mets, Phillies, Braves, Marlins

Actual: Braves, Nationals, Phillies, Mets, Marlins

Reaction: I got the Marlins right! I thought the Braves needed one more year. That was incorrect. That is a scary team for a long, long time. The Nationals were a shocker. I still don’t know how they did not make the playoffs with that team. The Mets on the other hand was my bold prediction to get to the playoffs, but they are the Mets… injuries are just killer to that team. Maybe next year??

NL CENTRAL

Prediction: Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers, Reds, Pirates

Actual: Brewers, Cubs, Cardinals, Pirates, Reds

I still don’t want to talk about it. And remember when the Cardinals added Paul Goldschimdt this offseason?? Cubs please do something cough *Harper* cough.

NL WEST

Prediction: Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks, Padres, Rockies

Actual: Dodgers, Rockies, Diamondbacks, Giants, Padres

Reaction: The Rockies were my bold prediction to regress and I was way off (early prediction for 2019 – Rockies will have massive regression). Their pitching held up surprisingly well. Marquez looks like a beast, the metrics are interesting on Freeland, but they definitely proved me wrong. The Giants were the huge disappointment here.

POSTSEASON

Prediction: NLDS – Dodgers over Mets; Cubs over Nationals ALDS – Astros over Red Sox; Yankees over Indians NLCS – Cubs over Dodgers ALCS – Yankees over Astros

World Series – Yankees over Cubs in 7

Actual: NLDS – Dodgers over Braves; Brewers over Rockies ALDS – Astros over Indians; Red Sox over Yankees; NLCS – Dodgers over Brewers ALCS – Red Sox over Astros World Series – Red Sox over Dodgers

Reaction: It is hard to predict how a season is going to go before it even starts. Injuries, trades, call-ups, regression, break outs, and more are always unpredictable. Ten teams make the playoffs each year including both wild cards. Of the ten teams who made the playoffs, I was right about six of them. Considering none of my choices were surprises, that was not a great percentage. I let a little Cubs bias leak in as well (although I truly believed they were the best team in the NL to start the year last year), and one of my goals this year is to be more objective in my analysis (or at least try to be!)

AWARD RACES

Prediction – NL MVP – Harper AL MVP – Correa NL Cy Young – Syndergaard AL Cy Young – Chris Sale NL RoY – Acuña AL Roy – Ohtani

Actual – NL MVP – Yelich AL MVP – Betts NL Cy Young – DeGrom AL Cy Young – Snell NL RoY – Acuña AL RoY – Ohtani

Reaction: WOOO! I finally nailed a prediction. Ohtani and Acuña were well deserving award winners for Rookies of the Year, but Juan Soto made that a close one until the end. As for MVPs, Correa had a disappointing campaign due to injury, but what Betts, Trout, and Ramirez did this year was incredible. Harper had a solid year, but not the kind of year I was expecting from him, and, again, I don’t want to talk about the Brewers and Yelich.

Finally, as for the Cy Young, Syndergaard had trouble staying healthy but a Met did win it so that’s kind of close…Sale was hands down the best pitcher in the American League. It was the best year of his career. He had injury issues and only threw 158 innings, yet he was second in the AL in WAR, led the AL in K/9, and had a great walk rate. Snell had a fantastic year, but even with the injury issues I thought Sale deserved it. He was the best pitcher in baseball. That should equal Cy Young.

 

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